RYANAIR – 3rd Quarter Results 2013

RYANAIR REPORTS Q3 PROFIT OF €18M (UP 21%)
TRAFFIC UP 3%, AVG FARES UP 8% – F.Y. GUIDANCE RAISED TO €540M

2013-01-30 — /travelprnews.com/ — Ryanair, Europe’s only ultra-low cost carrier today (Jan 28) announced Q3 profits of €18m, up €3m on last year despite an €81m increase in fuel costs. Revenues rose 15% to €969m as traffic grew 3% to 17.3m passengers. Unit costs rose 11% mainly due to a 24% (€81m) increase in fuel. Excluding fuel Q3 unit costs rose by 4%, while avg. fares improved by 8%.

Summary Q3 Results (IFRS) in Euro.

Q3 Results (IFRS) €	Dec 31, 2011	Dec 31, 2012	% Change
Passengers	16.7m	17.3m	+3%
Revenue	€844m	€969m	+15%
Profit after Tax	€14.9m	€18.1m	+21%
Basic EPS(euro cent)	1.02	1.25	+23%

Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary said:

“Our Q3 profit of €18m was ahead of expectations due to strong pre-Christmas bookings at higher yields. The 8% rise in avg. fares reflects our improved customer service, record punctuality and the successful roll out of our reserved seating service. Our fuel costs rose €81m, (+24%), slightly less than expected as oil prices increased 22% (from $84pbl) to $102pbl. Excluding fuel, Q3 unit costs rose 4% due to excessive increases in Italian ATC costs, Spanish airport charges, and the strength of Sterling to the Euro. Ancillary revenue performed strongly and rose 24% to approx. €13 per pax.

New Routes and Bases.

Our new routes and bases are performing well in their first winter, although some smaller bases such as Budapest and Warsaw are doing so at very low prices. Our 51st base Maastricht opened in December, and we will open 6 new bases (total 57) from April in Eindhoven, Krakow, Zadar (Croatia), Chania (Greece), Marrakesh and Fez (Morocco). Significant capacity cuts by Legacy and other struggling EU carriers continue to offer us substantial growth opportunities across Europe.   We expect further capacity cuts and restructurings in Europe as high fare, loss making carriers struggle to compete with Ryanair’s expansion at low prices. During Q.3 Iberia, AFKLM, Air Berlin, and Lufthansa all announced major restructurings. Both LOT and SAS are seeking further state support while the Swiss charter airline “Hello” has closed. These trends will create more growth opportunities for Ryanair to grow profitably to 120m passengers over the next decade.

Customer Service.

Our industry leading customer service continues to improve as demonstrated by the following YTD milestones:-

·         93% of all Ryanair flights arrived on time (a new record).

·         Lost bags have fallen to less than 1 per 3,000 pax.

·         We cancel less than 4 flights in every 1,000.

No other EU airline can match Ryanair’s fares or this level of passenger service. The addition of reserved seating to our priority boarding service in 2012 has been very well received and a recent survey of Ryanair’s traffic in Spain (where Ryanair is the largest carrier) highlighted that 22% of our passengers were travelling on business. A survey of 10,000 passengers in December also yielded the following results:-

·       87% were satisfied or very satisfied with their Ryanair flight.

·       93% said they would fly Ryanair again.

·       95% said Ryanair provide excellent value for money.

Ryanair Strengths.

Ryanair’s ex fuel passenger cost of €27 (ytd) is lower than any carrier in Europe. Our average fare of €50 is (by some distance) lower than any other EU carrier. Our tight cost management, at a time when competitor costs are rising faster, will enable Ryanair to expand our price and cost leadership over all other EU airlines for the foreseeable future. The combination of Ryanair’s industry leading costs and customer service, strong cash flows and balance sheet, gives Ryanair a unique platform to deliver its next decade of growth as we target a 20% share of the EU short-haul market by growing to over 120m pax p.a.

Stansted Airport Sale

The sale of Stansted should be completed by the end of Spring. We welcome its purchase by MAG and look forward to working with them (as we do currently in Manchester, East Midlands, and Bournemouth) to grow Stansted’s low fare traffic back over 23m, where it was in 2007 before the BAA monopoly doubled Stansted’s fees. We also welcome the CAA’s announcement that is “minded to” rule that Stansted has market power, and will need effective regulation to protect Stansted users from exploitation by the airport monopoly particularly when “there is evidence to suggest that Stansted is pricing above the competitive level”.

Aer Lingus Update.

Under Irish Takeover Panel rules we are unable in these results to update on our offer to acquire Aer Lingus.  Accordingly we are issuing a separate announcement on this matter today.

Hedging & Balance Sheet.

We have recently extended our fuel hedges to 75% of FY 14 at $97pbl and hedges on our fuel exposures at $1.32. At current rates our FY14 fuel cost per passenger will rise by approx. 5%, compared to a 14% increase in FY13.

A 2^nd special dividend of €492m (€0.34 per share) was paid to shareholders in Q3, bringing to €1.53bn the funds returned by Ryanair to shareholders over the last five years. Ryanair’s balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry, with closing Q3 gross cash of €3.15bn. We expect the year end net cash to be positive despite directly owning over 70% of our fleet of 305 young Boeing 737-800s.

Outlook.

Our Q3 yields were boosted by stronger pre-Christmas bookings, while lower than expected operating costs delivered slightly better profits than forecast. However Q4 traffic (as previously guided) will drop by approx.400,000 passengers (-3%)below last year’s Q4, due to our grounding up to 80 aircraft which limits the impact of high oil prices, high airport fees at Stansted and Dublin, and seasonally weaker Q4 demand. On the basis of this improved Q3 result, our capacity cuts and limited visibility over Easter bookings and yields, (although we have seen some yield softness in January), we now expect our full year profits to exceed our previous guidance (of €490m to €520m) and rise close to €540m, a 7% increase on last year’s profits despite a 19% increase in our oil costs.

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