IATA says demand still rose across every region, but growth slowed sharply from June as higher fuel costs and Middle East disruption reshaped capacity and trade-lane performance.
IATA says global air cargo demand increased 3.9% year on year in July 2026, while capacity grew 1.7%.
- Global air cargo demand rose 3.9% year on year in July 2026, while capacity increased 1.7% and the worldwide cargo load factor improved to 46.0%.
- North American carriers recorded the strongest regional demand growth at 4.8%, while airlines in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America together accounted for more than 90% of the global increase.
- Asia–North America was the strongest major trade lane at +9.2%, while Europe–Middle East and Middle East–Asia traffic contracted by 16.1% and 14.1% respectively.
- IATA says dedicated freighters gained market share as belly-hold traffic declined, while sharply higher fuel prices and geopolitical and tariff uncertainty remain key risks.
(NEWS) GENEVA, Switzerland, 2026-Aug-31 — /Travel PR News/ — Global air cargo continued to expand in July, but the pace slowed markedly from the previous month as strong trans-Pacific traffic and growth in Europe and North America were offset by disruption on Gulf-linked trade lanes.
According to the International Air Transport Association, worldwide demand measured in cargo tonne-kilometres rose 3.9% year on year in July 2026, with international operations up 4.7%. Capacity measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres increased 1.7%, lifting the global cargo load factor by 1.0 percentage point to 46.0%.
The July result was positive across all six regions but represented a clear slowdown from June, when IATA reported an 8.5% year-on-year increase in global cargo demand. That moderation does not necessarily signal a reversal, but it underlines how volatile freight performance remains as trade flows adjust to geopolitical disruption, tariffs and changing transport capacity.
Freighters gain share as belly capacity softens
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president sustainability and chief economist, said airlines in Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America accounted for more than 90% of the overall increase in July. She also highlighted a shift in how freight moved, with dedicated freighters gaining market share while belly-hold traffic declined.
IATA said that change could reflect stronger demand for larger or specialist shipments as well as the operational flexibility of freighter aircraft. Belly capacity is closely tied to passenger schedules, while dedicated cargo aircraft can be deployed more selectively around freight demand and disrupted trade corridors.
The operating environment remained mixed. Global trade increased 7.5% year on year, while the Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped 0.3 points to 52.7 and the New Export Orders Index rose to 50.0. IATA described those indicators as broadly supportive of cargo demand.
Fuel was a much less favorable factor. Jet fuel prices jumped 12.2% month on month in July and were 56.9% higher than a year earlier, increasing the cost pressure on cargo operators at a time when geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainty remain elevated.
North America posts the strongest regional demand growth
North American carriers delivered the strongest regional performance, with cargo demand up 4.8% year on year even as capacity fell 1.5%. That combination pushed the regional cargo load factor up 2.5 percentage points to 41.2%.
European airlines followed with 4.4% demand growth against a 1.3% capacity increase, lifting their load factor to 51.1%, the highest level among the regions tracked by IATA. Asia-Pacific carriers recorded 4.1% growth in demand and a 3.0% rise in capacity, with a 49.5% load factor.
| Region | CTK change | ACTK change | Cargo load factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | +4.8% | -1.5% | 41.2% |
| Europe | +4.4% | +1.3% | 51.1% |
| Asia-Pacific | +4.1% | +3.0% | 49.5% |
| Latin America and Caribbean | +4.1% | +7.0% | 32.3% |
| Middle East | +1.7% | +4.0% | 44.1% |
| Africa | +1.1% | +4.1% | 45.8% |
Latin American and Caribbean carriers also posted 4.1% demand growth, although capacity expanded faster at 7.0%, lowering the regional load factor by 0.9 percentage points. Middle Eastern airlines grew demand by 1.7% and African carriers by 1.1%, the weakest regional performance in July.
Trans-Pacific cargo leads while Gulf-linked lanes contract
The trade-lane data show a sharper divide than the regional totals. Asia–North America was the strongest major corridor, with cargo traffic up 9.2% year on year for a sixth consecutive month of growth. The route accounted for 23.5% of industry CTKs in 2025, making its expansion particularly significant for the global total.
Within Asia traffic rose 6.1%, extending its growth streak to 33 months, while Europe–Asia increased 3.1% for a 41st consecutive month of expansion. Europe–North America was up 2.1% and recorded a third straight month of growth.
| Trade lane | July YoY change | Recent trend | 2025 industry share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia–North America | +9.2% | 6 months of growth | 23.5% |
| Within Asia | +6.1% | 33 months of growth | 7.3% |
| Europe–Asia | +3.1% | 41 months of growth | 21.5% |
| Europe–North America | +2.1% | 3 months of growth | 13.5% |
| Middle East–Asia | -14.1% | 5 months of contraction | 7.4% |
| Europe–Middle East | -16.1% | 5 months of contraction | 5.2% |
Gulf-linked corridors remained the clear weak point. Europe–Middle East traffic fell 16.1% and Middle East–Asia declined 14.1%, with both routes posting a fifth consecutive month of contraction. IATA linked the weakness to continuing disruption from conflict in the Middle East.
Outlook remains positive, but risks are building
Despite the slower headline growth rate, IATA said the cargo outlook remains broadly positive because manufacturing activity, export orders and global trade are still supportive. The July data also show that demand growth remained geographically broad rather than dependent on a single region.
The downside risks are equally visible. Fuel costs have risen sharply, Gulf trade lanes remain disrupted and uncertainty over tariffs could alter the timing and routing of international shipments. Those factors may also reinforce the recent shift toward dedicated freighters where operators need more control over routing, payload and scheduling.
For freight forwarders, airports and airlines, July therefore points to continued demand rather than a boom: cargo volumes are still expanding, but growth is becoming more selective by trade lane and aircraft type. The full July 2026 Air Cargo Market Analysis is available from IATA.
